Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Sofort Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 22.5 | 95% |
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 93% |
| O/U 26.5 | 91% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 87% |
| O/U 28.5 | 86% |
| O/U 30.5 | 82% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| Steelers O/U 10.5 | 79% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| O/U 32.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| Steelers O/U 12.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| O/U 34.5 | 71% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 70% |
| Steelers O/U 13.5 | 70% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 70% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| Spread -1.5 | 65% |
| O/U 36.5 | 65% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 64% |
| Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 61% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 12.5 | 60% |
| Steelers Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 60% |
| O/U 38.5 | 59% |
| Steelers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 59% |
| Steelers O/U 16.5 | 58% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| O/U 39.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 55% |
| O/U 40.5 | 54% |
| 2H Moneyline | 53% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 53% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 53% |
| Spread -4.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 51% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 51% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Steelers O/U 27.5 | 49% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 25+ | 49% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 48% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| O/U 42.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| Steelers O/U 19.5 | 45% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| O/U 43.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 43% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 40% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 40% |
| O/U 44.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 38% |
| Steelers O/U 20.5 | 38% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| O/U 45.5 | 37% |
| Spread -8.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 37% |
| 1H Moneyline | 37% |
| Spread -9.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| O/U 46.5 | 34% |
| Steelers vs. Patriots | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 1-6 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 31% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 31% |
| O/U 48.5 | 30% |
| Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 29% |
| Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 27% |
| Spread -13.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 26% |
| Steelers O/U 23.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 24% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-13 | 24% |
| O/U 50.5 | 23% |
| Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| Spread -14.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 22% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 10.5 | 22% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 21% |
| O/U 52.5 | 20% |
| Spread -16.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| Spread -5.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 19% |
| Steelers O/U 26.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 18% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 18% |
| Steelers vs. Patriots: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 18% |
| Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Spread -17.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| O/U 54.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 19-24 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 13-18 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 14-20 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 21+ | 14% |
| O/U 56.5 | 13% |
| Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -19.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 16.5 | 13% |
| Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 7-12 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 10% |
| O/U 58.5 | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Safety? | 9% |
| O/U 60.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Steelers O/U 30.5 | 8% |
| Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| O/U 64.5 | 5% |
| Steelers O/U 34.5 | 5% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -16.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Steelers vs. Patriots" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 95% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 1:00PM ET: If Steelers wins, the market will resolve to "Steelers". If Patriots wins, the market will resolve to "Patriots". If the game is post…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $2.0M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Sofort Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Sofort Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Steelers vs. Patriots" auf Sofort Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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