Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Sofort Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 96% |
| Ravens O/U 10.5 | 96% |
| O/U 25.5 | 95% |
| O/U 27.5 | 94% |
| Ravens O/U 12.5 | 94% |
| O/U 26.5 | 93% |
| Ravens O/U 13.5 | 93% |
| O/U 29.5 | 92% |
| O/U 28.5 | 92% |
| O/U 30.5 | 90% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 6.5 | 89% |
| Ravens O/U 16.5 | 87% |
| O/U 31.5 | 86% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| O/U 33.5 | 84% |
| O/U 32.5 | 84% |
| O/U 34.5 | 81% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 81% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 80% |
| O/U 35.5 | 79% |
| Ravens O/U 19.5 | 79% |
| Saints O/U 10.5 | 78% |
| O/U 36.5 | 77% |
| Spread -1.5 | 76% |
| Ravens O/U 20.5 | 76% |
| Saints O/U 12.5 | 75% |
| Spread -2.5 | 74% |
| O/U 37.5 | 73% |
| O/U 38.5 | 72% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 72% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 71% |
| O/U 39.5 | 70% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 69% |
| Saints O/U 13.5 | 69% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 68% |
| Spread -3.5 | 67% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 67% |
| Ravens O/U 23.5 | 67% |
| Spread -4.5 | 65% |
| O/U 40.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 65% |
| Saints 1H O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 65% |
| Saints Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 65% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 64% |
| O/U 41.5 | 62% |
| Spread -5.5 | 62% |
| O/U 42.5 | 60% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 60% |
| Spread -6.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 58% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 58% |
| O/U 43.5 | 57% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| Saints O/U 16.5 | 56% |
| O/U 44.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| Ravens O/U 26.5 | 55% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 54% |
| Spread -7.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 52% |
| O/U 45.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Ravens O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Saints 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Saints 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Saints Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Saints vs. Ravens: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| Saints 2H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Saints 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Safety? | 49% |
| Ravens Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 49% |
| O/U 46.5 | 48% |
| Spread -9.5 | 48% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 46% |
| Saints O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| O/U 47.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Spread -10.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 44% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 44% |
| O/U 48.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| Ravens Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| O/U 49.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 40% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 16.5 | 39% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 17.5 | 39% |
| Spread -13.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 37% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Saints O/U 20.5 | 37% |
| Ravens O/U 30.5 | 37% |
| O/U 50.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 35% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 35% |
| Spread -14.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 34% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 34% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 33% |
| O/U 51.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| O/U 52.5 | 31% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 30% |
| O/U 53.5 | 29% |
| Spread -16.5 | 29% |
| Saints 1H O/U 10.5 | 29% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Spread -17.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 27% |
| 1H Moneyline | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 26% |
| Saints O/U 23.5 | 26% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 19.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| O/U 54.5 | 24% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 23% |
| Saints Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Saints vs. Ravens | 22% |
| O/U 55.5 | 22% |
| Spread -19.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| Ravens O/U 34.5 | 22% |
| Spread -20.5 | 21% |
| O/U 56.5 | 21% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 20.5 | 21% |
| Spread -1.5 | 20% |
| Saints 1H O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| O/U 57.5 | 19% |
| Spread -2.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| Exact Margin: Ravens by 1-6 | 18% |
| Exact Margin: Ravens by 7-13 | 18% |
| Exact Margin: Ravens by 14-20 | 18% |
| Spread -21.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| O/U 58.5 | 17% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| Exact Margin: Ravens by 21+ | 17% |
| O/U 59.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 16% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Saints O/U 26.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 16% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 15% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 15% |
| Spread -3.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Saints O/U 27.5 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 1-6 | 14% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 14% |
| Spread -4.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| O/U 60.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| O/U 61.5 | 11% |
| Spread -5.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 7-12 | 11% |
| Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| O/U 62.5 | 10% |
| Saints 1H O/U 16.5 | 10% |
| O/U 63.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| O/U 65.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| O/U 64.5 | 8% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 13-18 | 8% |
| Spread -8.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Saints O/U 30.5 | 7% |
| Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Saints 1H O/U 20.5 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 25+ | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 19-24 | 6% |
| Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Saints O/U 34.5 | 5% |
| Saints 1H O/U 19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Spread -16.5 | 2% |
| Spread -17.5 | 2% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| Spread -21.5 | 2% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 2% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Saints vs. Ravens — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 96%. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 1:00PM ET: If Saints wins, the market will resolve to "Saints". If Ravens wins, the market will resolve to "Ravens". If the game is postponed, t…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $1.2M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Sofort Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Saints vs. Ravens" auf Sofort Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →