Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Sofort Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| Chiefs O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| O/U 26.5 | 88% |
| O/U 28.5 | 88% |
| Broncos O/U 10.5 | 88% |
| O/U 30.5 | 85% |
| O/U 32.5 | 83% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 6.5 | 83% |
| O/U 34.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| Chiefs O/U 16.5 | 77% |
| Broncos O/U 14.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| Broncos O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| Chiefs O/U 12.5 | 73% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| O/U 36.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 70% |
| Broncos O/U 12.5 | 70% |
| Broncos O/U 13.5 | 70% |
| Chiefs O/U 13.5 | 69% |
| Chiefs O/U 17.5 | 69% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 68% |
| 2H O/U 14.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 17.5 | 66% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 66% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 66% |
| Chiefs O/U 19.5 | 66% |
| O/U 38.5 | 65% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 7.5 | 65% |
| Broncos O/U 17.5 | 65% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 64% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| O/U 39.5 | 63% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| Broncos O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| O/U 40.5 | 60% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 59% |
| Chiefs O/U 20.5 | 57% |
| O/U 41.5 | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 55% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 9.5 | 55% |
| O/U 42.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 11.5 | 54% |
| Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| Broncos O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 8.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 11.5 | 52% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 52% |
| Chiefs O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| 2H Moneyline | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 51% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 14-20 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 21+ | 51% |
| Safety? | 51% |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 7-13 | 50% |
| Broncos Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 48% |
| Chiefs Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 47% |
| Chiefs O/U 26.5 | 47% |
| Broncos O/U 22.5 | 47% |
| O/U 44.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs | 45% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 1H Moneyline | 45% |
| Chiefs O/U 23.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 44% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| O/U 45.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 41% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 17.5 | 41% |
| Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Broncos O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| O/U 46.5 | 39% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 11.5 | 38% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 38% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 38% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 38% |
| O/U 47.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| Chiefs O/U 25.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 10.5 | 36% |
| O/U 48.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Broncos O/U 25.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Broncos O/U 30.5 | 31% |
| O/U 50.5 | 30% |
| Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| Chiefs O/U 30.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 29% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 29% |
| Broncos O/U 26.5 | 28% |
| Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| Chiefs O/U 34.5 | 28% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| Broncos O/U 34.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 26% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| Chiefs O/U 27.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| Chiefs O/U 28.5 | 24% |
| Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| O/U 52.5 | 23% |
| Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| Broncos O/U 27.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 16.5 | 22% |
| Chiefs O/U 29.5 | 22% |
| Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| O/U 54.5 | 20% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 1-6 | 20% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 1-6 | 20% |
| Spread -8.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| O/U 56.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 4Q O/U 17.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 15% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 17.5 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 7-12 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 16.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| O/U 58.5 | 12% |
| Spread -21.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| O/U 60.5 | 11% |
| Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 20.5 | 11% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 25+ | 10% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 13-18 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| O/U 62.5 | 8% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -19.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| O/U 64.5 | 7% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 19-24 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Broncos vs. Chiefs" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 93% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 14 at 8:15PM ET: If Broncos wins, the market will resolve to "Broncos". If Chiefs wins, the market will resolve to "Chiefs". If the game is postponed,…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $627K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Sofort Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Sofort Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
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