Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Sofort Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Commanders O/U 10.5 | 95% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 93% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 93% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| O/U 26.5 | 89% |
| O/U 28.5 | 86% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 6.5 | 83% |
| O/U 29.5 | 82% |
| O/U 31.5 | 78% |
| O/U 30.5 | 78% |
| Commanders O/U 16.5 | 77% |
| Commanders O/U 19.5 | 77% |
| O/U 32.5 | 76% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 10.5 | 76% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 75% |
| Giants O/U 10.5 | 73% |
| Spread -1.5 | 71% |
| O/U 33.5 | 71% |
| O/U 34.5 | 71% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| Spread -2.5 | 68% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 68% |
| O/U 35.5 | 67% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 67% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 67% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 62% |
| Commanders O/U 20.5 | 62% |
| Giants O/U 16.5 | 61% |
| Giants O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| Spread -3.5 | 60% |
| Spread -4.5 | 59% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 59% |
| O/U 36.5 | 59% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 12.5 | 59% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 16.5 | 59% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| O/U 37.5 | 56% |
| O/U 38.5 | 56% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 13.5 | 56% |
| Spread -5.5 | 55% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 54% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 51% |
| Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Giants O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Giants O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Giants O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Giants 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Giants 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Giants 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Giants 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Giants Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Commanders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Giants vs. Commanders: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Giants Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Commanders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Giants Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 39.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Commanders O/U 23.5 | 47% |
| 1H Moneyline | 47% |
| Spread -7.5 | 46% |
| O/U 40.5 | 46% |
| O/U 41.5 | 45% |
| Spread -8.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| O/U 42.5 | 42% |
| Spread -9.5 | 40% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| Giants O/U 12.5 | 40% |
| Giants O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| O/U 43.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 38% |
| Spread -10.5 | 36% |
| O/U 44.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| O/U 45.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| O/U 46.5 | 31% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| Giants O/U 20.5 | 30% |
| O/U 47.5 | 28% |
| Spread -13.5 | 28% |
| Giants vs. Commanders | 27% |
| Commanders O/U 26.5 | 27% |
| Commanders O/U 27.5 | 27% |
| O/U 49.5 | 26% |
| Spread -14.5 | 25% |
| O/U 48.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| Spread -1.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| O/U 67.5 | 22% |
| O/U 69.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| Giants 1H O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| Spread -16.5 | 21% |
| O/U 50.5 | 21% |
| Spread -2.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| Giants O/U 23.5 | 19% |
| Giants O/U 26.5 | 19% |
| O/U 51.5 | 18% |
| Spread -17.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| O/U 52.5 | 18% |
| Spread -3.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| O/U 53.5 | 14% |
| O/U 55.5 | 14% |
| Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 20.5 | 14% |
| O/U 54.5 | 13% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 13% |
| Spread -5.5 | 12% |
| Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| O/U 56.5 | 11% |
| O/U 57.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| O/U 58.5 | 10% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 9% |
| Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 8% |
| Giants 1H O/U 16.5 | 8% |
| O/U 59.5 | 7% |
| O/U 61.5 | 7% |
| Spread -8.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| O/U 60.5 | 7% |
| Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 6% |
| Giants 1H O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| O/U 63.5 | 5% |
| Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| O/U 62.5 | 5% |
| O/U 64.5 | 5% |
| Spread -16.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 4% |
| Giants 1H O/U 20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 3% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 3% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 3% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 3% |
| O/U 65.5 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 100% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Giants vs. Commanders. In the upcoming NFL football game between Giants and Commanders, scheduled for October 11 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Giants" if Giants win the game. This market will resolve to "Comman…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $893K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Sofort Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%2322c55e%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2322c55e%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2322c55e%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%2322c55e%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Giants vs. Commanders" auf Sofort Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →