Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Sofort Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| UMass 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| O/U 34.5 | 94% |
| UMass vs. Sacramento State | 93% |
| 1H O/U 18.5 | 91% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 91% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 91% |
| UMass O/U 20.5 | 91% |
| UMass 1H O/U 14.5 | 91% |
| UMass 1H O/U 16.5 | 91% |
| Spread -1.5 | 88% |
| Spread -2.5 | 86% |
| Spread -3.5 | 84% |
| O/U 40.5 | 84% |
| UMass O/U 23.5 | 84% |
| Spread -5.5 | 78% |
| O/U 30.5 | 78% |
| O/U 46.5 | 78% |
| Spread -6.5 | 77% |
| O/U 28.5 | 77% |
| O/U 32.5 | 77% |
| O/U 36.5 | 76% |
| Spread -4.5 | 75% |
| O/U 38.5 | 75% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 74% |
| O/U 42.5 | 73% |
| Spread -7.5 | 72% |
| O/U 44.5 | 70% |
| Spread -9.5 | 69% |
| Spread -8.5 | 64% |
| Spread -10.5 | 63% |
| Spread -11.5 | 59% |
| Spread -12.5 | 56% |
| Spread -14.5 | 55% |
| O/U 48.5 | 54% |
| O/U 50.5 | 54% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UMass O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| UMass O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| UMass O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| UMass 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| UMass 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| UMass 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Sacramento State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UMass O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| UMass vs. Sacramento State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| UMass vs. Sacramento State: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| UMass vs. Sacramento State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| UMass 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| UMass 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UMass Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UMass Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| UMass vs. Sacramento State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass vs. Sacramento State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass vs. Sacramento State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 52.5 | 49% |
| Spread -17.5 | 45% |
| Spread -18.5 | 42% |
| O/U 56.5 | 41% |
| Spread -21.5 | 37% |
| O/U 60.5 | 35% |
| Sacramento State O/U 21.5 | 35% |
| Spread -24.5 | 34% |
| O/U 62.5 | 33% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 32% |
| O/U 66.5 | 31% |
| O/U 68.5 | 31% |
| Spread -20.5 | 30% |
| Sacramento State O/U 27.5 | 27% |
| Spread -1.5 | 25% |
| O/U 58.5 | 22% |
| Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| Spread -2.5 | 14% |
| Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| O/U 64.5 | 12% |
| Spread -3.5 | 11% |
| Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| Spread -13.5 | 6% |
| Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 100% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: UMass vs. Sacramento State. In the upcoming college football game between UMass and Sacramento State, scheduled for September 26 at 9:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "UMass" if UMass win the game. This market will resolve t…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $417K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Sofort Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Sofort Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: UMass vs. Sacramento State" auf Sofort Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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