Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Sofort Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 100% |
| O/U 37.5 | 100% |
| O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| O/U 41.5 | 100% |
| O/U 43.5 | 100% |
| O/U 47.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Boise State O/U 20.5 | 100% |
| Boise State 1H O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| Boise State 1H O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Boise State 1H O/U 15.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State 1H O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Fresno State 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| O/U 49.5 | 99% |
| O/U 51.5 | 99% |
| O/U 53.5 | 94% |
| O/U 55.5 | 94% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 91% |
| Boise State O/U 23.5 | 91% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 91% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 91% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 91% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 91% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 91% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 91% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 91% |
| 1H Moneyline | 91% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 91% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 90% |
| O/U 57.5 | 89% |
| O/U 59.5 | 89% |
| Spread -0.5 | 88% |
| O/U 61.5 | 85% |
| Boise State vs. Fresno State | 83% |
| Fresno State O/U 23.5 | 82% |
| Spread -1.5 | 81% |
| O/U 63.5 | 80% |
| Spread -2.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 74% |
| Spread -3.5 | 73% |
| O/U 65.5 | 73% |
| Spread -4.5 | 72% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 66% |
| Spread -5.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 64% |
| O/U 67.5 | 62% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 62% |
| Spread -6.5 | 61% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 60% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| Spread -7.5 | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 55% |
| O/U 69.5 | 55% |
| Spread -8.5 | 54% |
| O/U 71.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| O/U 45.5 | 51% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Boise State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Boise State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Boise State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Boise State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Boise State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Boise State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Boise State vs. Fresno State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Boise State vs. Fresno State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Boise State vs. Fresno State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Boise State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Boise State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Boise State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Boise State vs. Fresno State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Boise State vs. Fresno State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Boise State vs. Fresno State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Boise State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| O/U 73.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| Spread -13.5 | 36% |
| O/U 75.5 | 35% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 35% |
| Spread -14.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| Spread -17.5 | 26% |
| Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 26% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 23% |
| Spread -20.5 | 16% |
| Spread -1.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Spread -2.5 | 13% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 10% |
| Spread -3.5 | 9% |
| Spread -4.5 | 8% |
| Spread -5.5 | 7% |
| Spread -6.5 | 6% |
| Spread -7.5 | 4% |
| Spread -8.5 | 3% |
| Spread -10.5 | 2% |
| Spread -13.5 | 2% |
| Spread -14.5 | 1% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: boise state vs. fresno state 100%. In the upcoming college football game between Boise State and Fresno State, scheduled for October 10 at 10:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Boise State" if Boise State win the…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $1.0M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei Auflösung tritt der UMA-Oracle-Mechanismus in Aktion: ein Vorschlagender stellt das Ergebnis mit einem Bond ein, jeder Token-Halter kann es innerhalb von zwei Stunden disputieren. Ohne Dispute wird das Ergebnis akzeptiert und der Smart Contract zahlt sofort aus.
Auf Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert) erfolgt die Auflösung über die hauseigene Clearing-Engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settelt nach Match-Ende in der jeweiligen Konto-Währung. Manifold zahlt keine Cash-Beträge — nur die platforme-eigene "Mana"-Währung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Sofort Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%2322c55e%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2322c55e%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2322c55e%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%2322c55e%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Boise State vs. Fresno State" auf Sofort Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →